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The Maths of Chance

Some things we know for sure. Other things are a surprise!

When you flip a coin or roll a dice, you can't be sure what you'll get. That "not sure" feeling has a maths name: probability

Probability is just a way to say how likely something is to happen. In this Spark you'll flip coins, roll dice, and learn to think like a probability detective! 🕵️

Tap Next when you're ready to flip your first coin.

A coin has two sides

A coin has Heads (H) and Tails (T). When you flip it, each side has the same chance. We say the chance is even — like a fair race between two friends.

?
Heads: 0 🙂
Tails: 0 🐲

Out of 2 sides, 1 is Heads. So the chance of Heads is 1 out of 2.

From impossible to certain

We can put every event on a chance line. The left end means it will never happen. The right end means it will always happen. The middle means it's a maybe.

Impossible Even (50/50) Certain

Where does this belong?

A coin lands on Heads OR Tails 🪙

A dice has six faces

A normal dice shows the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Each number has the same chance when you roll. Pick the number you think will come up, then roll!

I bet on number…

There are 6 numbers, so the chance of YOUR number is 1 out of 6. It's okay to miss — that's how chance works!

Counting the lucky faces

To find a chance, count two things:
① how many faces you want   ② how many faces there are in total.

On a dice, how many faces show an even number (2, 4, 6)?

The more you flip, the fairer it looks

One flip is a surprise. But if you flip lots of times, Heads and Tails get close to equal. Let's test it — flip 50 coins at once!

Heads
0
Tails
0

They're rarely exactly equal — but close! This is the big idea of probability. 📊

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Probability Detective!

Here's everything you learned:

Next time you play a board game, you'll know the maths behind every roll. Well done! 🎉